07/01/11

All of us here at Riskdisk wish you a very happy and prosperous New Year. The key question is, will it be? Have we now fully emerged from the difficulties of the last two years and can Riskdisk customers look forward with confidence? From the data we continually process, we've analysed some key elements relating to the UK business environment and we'd like to share our observations with you. These show where we are now and allow us to forecast for the future.

We've also compiled a list of the 'Top 5 Company Directors most viewed on Riskdisk in 2010'. Can you guess who these are?

Hindsight

2010 was about emerging from survival through the difficulties of 2008 and 2009 and beginning to build again in a somewhat improving economy. The comparisons of the 'adverse' business statistics between 2010 and 2009* highlight this improvement:

• CCJs were down 26%;
• Administration orders were down 34%;
• Winding-up petitions were down 21%;
• Liquidations were down 9%;
• Receiverships were down 35%;
• Dissolutions were down 33%.

These numbers firmly suggest the worst impact of the recession on business viability is behind us. Our own experience at Riskdisk, where we've grown to around 20,000 business customers of all sizes across all sectors, is similar in that we've lost far less customers who went out of business in 2010, than in 2009. The following statistics can also be considered encouraging:

• Voluntary arrangements up 9%. Companies not failing but continuing because those involved can see the light at the end of the tunnel?
• New Incorporations up 11%. Sounds positive!
• Count of Trading companies was up 2% with a tiny decline in Non-trading. That's OK, too.
• These are all key metrics which support the argument that things have improved.

Crystal Ball

Experience tells us that, providing overall demand is broadly unaffected, those businesses that survive a recession have a new opportunity to grow by filling the gap left by their competitors who failed. However, there are some cautionary notes:

•The impact of the recession was not even across sectors. Some were hit harder than others.
•The economy is not out of the woods yet. Rebalancing government expenditure is only just beginning to bite. For some, the squeeze is only just starting. The VAT rise will dampen consumer demand improvement. Capital investment by government is reducing but the private sector, especially energy, is increasing.

Two areas in particular trouble us:

•House prices are still going South and the future's uncertain.
•Europe! What will happen to the weaker economies and the Euro currency itself?

But, overall, our prognosis for 2011 is cautiously optimistic. The combined total for our credit limits is 5.5% higher than the same point last year, now at over £98 billion. We think that private sector investment and growth will be sufficient to continue the growth seen in 2010. We hope to see an acceleration later in the year.

What we can be sure about is that Riskdisk will be here supporting you making wise decisions and helping you collect your money in 2011. And, by this time next year, we hope and expect we'll be serving more of you and delivering new features and products. We're aiming to help you grow with confidence in 2011.

Top 5

On a lighter note (as that's clearly what our Director Search facility is most used for), the 5 Company Directors most viewed on Riskdisk in 2010 were:
1. Simon Cowell
2. Alan Sugar
3. Richard Branson
4. Peter Jones
5. Duncan Bannatyne
None of these presumably for credit purposes! David Beckham was 8th on the list and in a year when the Royal Wedding was announced, Carole Middleton was 11th. Once again, Happy New Year from all at Riskdisk.

*Figures for both 2009 and 2010 are based on November to November.